Regional Change Management Phase II
ID: 3689202-10
Potential Value
$10,000,000
Deal Value
$53,333,333
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
404
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Technology
Opportunity Sub-SL
Technology
Competency
Enterprise IT Transformation
Global Service Code
TEC-Digital Systems Evolution (20232)
Partner
Rogers Ann
Pursuit Leader
Long Stephanie
Open Date
Apr 4, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jun 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Regional Change Management Phase II
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
21.6%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$405,892
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
21.6%
Model A: Planning
18.8%
Model B: Early Signal
2.9%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
18.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (19%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
2.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, service sub-line track record.