Intelligent Risk Management Analysis - Phase 3
ID: 8126324-30
Potential Value
$2,000,000
Deal Value
$8,000,000
Stated Probability
20%
Days in Pipeline
230
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy & Transformation
Competency
Enterprise Transformation
Global Service Code
Process Reengineering (74403)
Partner
Rodriguez Danielle
Pursuit Leader
Larsen Carolyn
Open Date
Sep 25, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Sep 21, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Intelligent Risk Management Analysis - Phase 3
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
16.6%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$79,439
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
16.6%
Model A: Planning
23.9%
Model B: Early Signal
5.2%
Stated Probability
20%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
23.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (24%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
5.2%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (5%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, market segment.