QualifyPast Due

Extended Technology Modernization Framework

ID: 8216081-50

Potential Value

$1

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

373

Client & Account

Client

Crimson Aerospace Alliance

City

Philadelphia

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Strategy and Execution

Competency

S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Transformation Planning - CorpFin (32133)

People & Dates

Partner

Wright Andrea

Pursuit Leader

Brooks Fernando

Open Date

May 5, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Mar 31, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Extended Technology Modernization Framework

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

35.6%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$0

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.626
Service sub-line track record
-0.516
Opportunity business unit
+0.479

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

35.6%

Model A: Planning

20.4%

Model B: Early Signal

13.1%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

20.4%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.081
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.043
Lead sales credit %
-0.751

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (20%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

13.1%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.634
Service sub-line track record
-0.530
Sub-sector track record
-0.405

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (13%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, sub-sector track record.