Critical Change Management Assessment (Revised)
ID: 2283312-50
Potential Value
$19,000,000
Deal Value
$19,000,000
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
233
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Technology
Opportunity Sub-SL
Technology
Competency
AI and Data Transformation
Global Service Code
TEC-Intelligent Analytics Platform (20383)
Partner
Clark Christina
Pursuit Leader
Martinez Samuel
Open Date
Sep 22, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 1, 2028
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Change Management Assessment (Revised)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
11.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$181,254
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
11.2%
Model A: Planning
8.5%
Model B: Early Signal
2.6%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
8.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (9%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
2.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, service sub-line track record.