Multi-Phase Change Management Program (Amended)
ID: 2619572-40
Potential Value
$75,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
97
Client
Lion Education Consortium
Account
Beta Operational Systems
City
San Francisco
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy & Transformation
Competency
Enterprise Transformation
Global Service Code
Process Reengineering (74403)
Partner
Yang Frances
Pursuit Leader
Morgan Hannah
Open Date
Feb 5, 2026
Anticipated Win Date
May 6, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Multi-Phase Change Management Program (Amended)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
45.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$10,534
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
45.2%
Model A: Planning
31.1%
Model B: Early Signal
10.0%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
31.1%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (31%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, currency (usd vs other).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
10.0%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (10%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), currency (usd vs other).