IdentifyPast Due

Transformative Risk Management Workshop - Renewal

ID: 4108763-40

Potential Value

$3,500,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

547

Client & Account

Client

Heritage Foundation

City

Washington

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Technology

Opportunity Sub-SL

Technology

Competency

Enterprise IT Transformation

Global Service Code

TEC-Digital Systems Evolution (20232)

People & Dates

Partner

Gonzalez Haruki

Pursuit Leader

Suzuki Émilie

Open Date

Nov 12, 2024

Anticipated Win Date

Feb 27, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Transformative Risk Management Workshop - Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

39.1%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$294,029

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.693
Service sub-line track record
-0.483
Opportunity business unit
+0.257

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

39.1%

Model A: Planning

21.5%

Model B: Early Signal

2.8%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

21.5%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.313
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.122
Lead sales credit %
-0.789

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (21%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

2.8%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.924
Service sub-line track record
-0.647
Deal size vs service line median
-0.630

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.