IdentifyOver 90 Days

Regional Performance Management Strategy - FY26

ID: 1734113-30

Potential Value

$50,000,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

1189

Client & Account

Client

Crimson Transport Cooperative

City

New York

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Organization & People

Opportunity Sub-SL

Organization & People

Competency

Organization & Workforce Transformation

Global Service Code

Environmental Compliance - Compliance (54455)

People & Dates

Partner

Suzuki Michelle

Pursuit Leader

Williams Benjamin

Open Date

Feb 9, 2023

Anticipated Win Date

May 31, 2028

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Regional Performance Management Strategy - FY26

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

40.2%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$4,034,070

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.543
Service sub-line track record
-0.531
US Federal business unit
-0.370

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

40.2%

Model A: Planning

20.1%

Model B: Early Signal

3.0%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

20.1%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.398
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.054
Service sub-line track record
-0.887

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (20%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

3.0%

Key Drivers

Service sub-line track record
-0.941
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.739
Deal size vs service line median
-0.690

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median.