Adaptive Risk Management Diagnostic
ID: 2049489-40
Potential Value
$22,626
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
75%
Days in Pipeline
90
Client
Aqua Aerospace Enterprises
City
New York
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Tax
Field of Play
Tax
Opportunity Sub-SL
BTS
Competency
BTS - BTA
Global Service Code
Internal Controls (50733)
Partner
Howard Karen
Pursuit Leader
Meyer Anthony
Open Date
Feb 12, 2026
Anticipated Win Date
May 12, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Adaptive Risk Management Diagnostic
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
89.7%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$19,954
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
89.7%
Model A: Planning
98.4%
Model B: Early Signal
92.6%
Stated Probability
75%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
98.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (98%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: lead sales credit %, market segment.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
92.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a high probability of winning (93%). Factors working in favor: region track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: market segment.