Multi-Phase Supply Chain Strategy
ID: 3880287-20
Potential Value
$200,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
50%
Days in Pipeline
190
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Organization & People
Opportunity Sub-SL
Organization & People
Competency
People Experience
Global Service Code
Market Analysis (82042)
Partner
Martinez Larry
Pursuit Leader
Rogers Sophie
Open Date
Nov 4, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 31, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Multi-Phase Supply Chain Strategy
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
40.8%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$16,740
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
40.8%
Model A: Planning
20.5%
Model B: Early Signal
7.8%
Stated Probability
50%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
20.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (21%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
7.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (8%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size.