Identify60-90 Days

Extended Program Management Implementation - FY25

ID: 2559025-20

Potential Value

$2,500,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

387

Client & Account

Client

Nordic Aerospace International

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Risk

Opportunity Sub-SL

Risk´

Competency

Digital and Technology Risk Management

Global Service Code

Credit Risk Advisory (57516)

People & Dates

Partner

Gupta Miguel

Pursuit Leader

Williams Michael

Open Date

Apr 21, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Jun 30, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Extended Program Management Implementation - FY25

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

29.4%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$214,474

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.584
Service sub-line track record
-0.498
Deal size (log scale)
-0.387

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

29.4%

Model A: Planning

29.2%

Model B: Early Signal

6.1%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

29.2%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.839
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.154
Lead sales credit %
-0.681

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (29%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

6.1%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.796
Deal size
-0.591
Service sub-line track record
-0.453

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (6%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, service sub-line track record.