IdentifyWithin 30 Days

Optimized Cybersecurity Renewal

ID: 4256557-40

Potential Value

$1

Deal Value

$250,000

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

144

Client & Account

Client

Nexus Holdings

City

Chicago

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Tax

Field of Play

Tax

Opportunity Sub-SL

Indirect

Competency

Indirect Tax - Core

Global Service Code

Sustainability Reporting - Management (33464)

People & Dates

Partner

Vargas Ming

Pursuit Leader

Price Justin

Open Date

Dec 20, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Apr 30, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Optimized Cybersecurity Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

79.0%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$1

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.681
Opportunity business unit
+0.523
Sub-sector track record
+0.421

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

79.0%

Model A: Planning

83.3%

Model B: Early Signal

38.6%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

83.3%

Key Drivers

Lead sales credit %
-0.799
Deal age (days since open)
-0.731
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.689

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (83%). Factors working against: lead sales credit %, deal age (days since open), brand new pursuit (vs renewal).

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

38.6%

Key Drivers

Market segment
-0.492
Service sub-line track record
-0.485
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.481

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (39%). Factors working against: market segment, service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal).