ClosingPast Due

High-Impact Market Entry Diagnostic

ID: 8001393-40

Potential Value

$500,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

70%

Days in Pipeline

432

Client & Account

Client

National Security Services

City

Washington

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Assurance

Field of Play

Finance

Opportunity Sub-SL

FAAS

Competency

FAAS - Financial applications, processes and analytics

Global Service Code

Talent Analytics - CorpFin (71068)

People & Dates

Partner

Richardson Lauren

Pursuit Leader

Wagner Ashley

Open Date

Mar 7, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Feb 27, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

High-Impact Market Entry Diagnostic

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

44.9%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$63,230

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.618
Service sub-line track record
-0.508
Opportunity business unit
+0.418

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

44.9%

Model A: Planning

28.2%

Model B: Early Signal

3.5%

Stated Probability

70%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

28.2%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.067
Time in current pipeline stage
-0.817
Lead sales credit %
-0.800

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (28%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

3.5%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.771
Service sub-line track record
-0.662
Deal size
-0.543

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size.