Critical Performance Management Renewal
ID: 5151942-20
Potential Value
$5,000,000
Deal Value
$4,500
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
188
Client
Falcon Banking Commission
Account
Nexgen Security Corporation
City
Washington
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy & Transformation
Competency
Enterprise Transformation
Global Service Code
Process Reengineering (74403)
Partner
Fischer Olivier
Pursuit Leader
Butler Karin
Open Date
Nov 6, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jun 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Performance Management Renewal
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
35.1%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$229,640
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
35.1%
Model A: Planning
13.1%
Model B: Early Signal
2.9%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
13.1%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (13%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
2.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.