Critical Operations Phase III
ID: 9658169-50
Potential Value
$5,050,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
50%
Days in Pipeline
196
Client
Nexus Operational Partners
Account
Sigma Manufacturing Agency
City
San Francisco
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Assurance
Field of Play
Risk
Opportunity Sub-SL
Forensics
Competency
Incident Response & Resilience
Global Service Code
Mediation Services (94774)
Partner
Howard Linda
Pursuit Leader
Carter Jacqueline
Open Date
Oct 29, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 27, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Operations Phase III
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
91.0%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$4,414,973
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
91.0%
Model A: Planning
96.0%
Model B: Early Signal
84.8%
Stated Probability
50%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
96.0%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (96%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), recurring/additional sale. Factors working against: lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
84.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a high probability of winning (85%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), recurring/additional sale, opportunitytype additional sales opportunity.