Enterprise Risk Management Renewal (Revised)
ID: 2158184-50
Potential Value
$1,000,000
Deal Value
$1,000,000
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
126
Client
Lunar Agricultural Alliance
Account
Copper Transport Ventures
City
Washington
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Assurance
Field of Play
Risk
Opportunity Sub-SL
Forensics
Competency
Integrity & Compliance
Global Service Code
Security Assessment (30891)
Partner
Taylor Marcel
Pursuit Leader
Jenkins Kathleen
Open Date
Jan 7, 2026
Anticipated Win Date
May 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Enterprise Risk Management Renewal (Revised)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
46.5%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$87,495
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
46.5%
Model A: Planning
18.8%
Model B: Early Signal
6.0%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
18.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (19%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
6.0%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (6%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, market segment.