IdentifyOver 90 Days

Optimized Performance Management Optimization (Revised)

ID: 2875518-20

Potential Value

$816,667

Deal Value

$4,083,333

Stated Probability

25%

Days in Pipeline

343

Client & Account

Client

Frontier Consortium

City

New York

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Finance

Opportunity Sub-SL

Finance´

Competency

Business Planning, Reporting & Analytics

Global Service Code

Internal Controls - Management (52177)

People & Dates

Partner

Schneider Michelle

Pursuit Leader

Moore Frances

Open Date

Jun 4, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Sep 30, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Optimized Performance Management Optimization (Revised)

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

43.1%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$76,028

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.542
Service sub-line track record
-0.511
US Federal business unit
-0.221

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

43.1%

Model A: Planning

21.6%

Model B: Early Signal

4.4%

Stated Probability

25%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

21.6%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.513
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.190
Lead sales credit %
-0.619

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (22%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

4.4%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.805
Service sub-line track record
-0.686
Deal size vs service line median
-0.623

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (4%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.