Multi-Phase Change Management Assessment - Phase 2
ID: 9056461-40
Potential Value
$1
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
203
Client
Beacon Infrastructure Ventures
Account
Copper Transport Ventures
City
New York
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Transactions & Corporate Finance
Competency
TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Regulatory Compliance (61122)
Partner
Parker Christine
Pursuit Leader
Young Akira
Open Date
Oct 22, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jan 20, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Multi-Phase Change Management Assessment - Phase 2
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
79.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$0
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
79.2%
Model A: Planning
31.6%
Model B: Early Signal
20.0%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
31.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (32%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
20.0%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (20%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, market segment.