IdentifyPast Due

Strategic Risk Management Proof of Concept - Renewal

ID: 2506646-10

Potential Value

$1

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

203

Client & Account

Client

Beacon Infrastructure Ventures

City

New York

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Strategy and Execution

Competency

S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Service Design (61923)

People & Dates

Partner

Parker Christine

Pursuit Leader

Young Akira

Open Date

Oct 22, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Jan 20, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Strategic Risk Management Proof of Concept - Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

76.2%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$0

Key Triage Drivers

Non-recurring work
+0.840
Work type
+0.666
Opportunity business unit
+0.460

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

76.2%

Model A: Planning

28.5%

Model B: Early Signal

17.2%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

28.5%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.370
Lead sales credit %
-0.741
Deal age (days since open)
-0.653

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (29%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, deal age (days since open).

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

17.2%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.770
Sub-sector track record
-0.481
Service sub-line track record
-0.442

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (17%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, service sub-line track record.