Accelerated Risk Management Redesign - Extension
ID: 2030538-50
Potential Value
$3,300,572
Deal Value
$3,300,572
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
434
Client
Marble Defense Dynamics
Account
Nexgen Security Corporation
City
Washington
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy & Transformation
Competency
Enterprise Transformation
Global Service Code
Process Reengineering (74403)
Partner
Gonzalez Haruki
Pursuit Leader
Campbell Joshua
Open Date
Mar 5, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Apr 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Accelerated Risk Management Redesign - Extension
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
36.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$151,190
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
36.2%
Model A: Planning
12.6%
Model B: Early Signal
2.5%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
12.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (13%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
2.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, service sub-line track record.