Optimized Market Entry Assessment - Phase 2
ID: 3500770-40
Potential Value
$250,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
635
Client
Marble Defense Dynamics
Account
Nexgen Security Corporation
City
Washington
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Tax
Field of Play
Finance
Opportunity Sub-SL
PAS - Tax
Competency
PAS - Global Payroll
Global Service Code
Internal Controls (81413)
Partner
Williams Priya
Pursuit Leader
Kelly Raymond
Open Date
Aug 16, 2024
Anticipated Win Date
Apr 6, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Optimized Market Entry Assessment - Phase 2
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
64.9%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$91,939
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
64.9%
Model A: Planning
56.7%
Model B: Early Signal
8.0%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
56.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (57%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
8.0%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (8%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), market segment, service sub-line track record.