Extended Governance Phase II
ID: 9104088-20
Potential Value
$350,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
478
Client
Crystal Defense Development
Account
Foundation Public Logistics
City
Dallas
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
FED
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy and Execution
Competency
S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Leadership Development - Transformation (88854)
Partner
Cooper Thomas
Pursuit Leader
Gonzalez Marilyn
Open Date
Jan 20, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 26, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Extended Governance Phase II
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
57.9%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$61,585
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
57.9%
Model A: Planning
30.4%
Model B: Early Signal
5.3%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
30.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (30%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
5.3%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (5%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, market segment.