PursueOver 90 Days

Next-Gen Program Management Blueprint

ID: 2112757-30

Potential Value

$60,000,000

Deal Value

$84,000,000

Stated Probability

70%

Days in Pipeline

824

Client & Account

Client

Compass Social Enterprises

City

New York

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Tax

Field of Play

Tax

Opportunity Sub-SL

BTS

Competency

BTS - Private Tax

Global Service Code

Logistics Planning (87034)

People & Dates

Partner

Thomas Lauren

Pursuit Leader

Medina Brandon

Open Date

Feb 9, 2024

Anticipated Win Date

Jul 17, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Next-Gen Program Management Blueprint

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

79.7%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$38,126,887

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.643
Service sub-line track record
+0.478
Opportunity business unit
+0.441

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

79.7%

Model A: Planning

79.7%

Model B: Early Signal

53.8%

Stated Probability

70%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

79.7%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.452
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.391
Lead sales credit %
-0.840

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (80%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

53.8%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.092
Renewal pursuit
+0.523
Deal size vs service line median
-0.490

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (54%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), renewal pursuit. Factors working against: deal size vs service line median.