Global Cost Optimization Framework (Amended)
ID: 2879015-20
Potential Value
$1
Deal Value
$1
Stated Probability
50%
Days in Pipeline
952
Service Line
Tax
Field of Play
Tax
Opportunity Sub-SL
Indirect
Competency
Indirect Tax - Core
Global Service Code
Public Sector Advisory (76082)
Partner
Fischer Olivier
Pursuit Leader
Campbell Joshua
Open Date
Oct 4, 2023
Anticipated Win Date
Jul 6, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Global Cost Optimization Framework (Amended)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
57.0%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$0
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
57.0%
Model A: Planning
40.7%
Model B: Early Signal
11.8%
Stated Probability
50%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
40.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (41%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
11.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (12%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, service sub-line track record.