Critical Tax Reform Analysis
ID: 4632918-50
Potential Value
$200,000
Deal Value
$120,000
Stated Probability
50%
Days in Pipeline
952
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Customer & Growth
Opportunity Sub-SL
Customer & Growth
Competency
Customer Experience
Global Service Code
Product Strategy - SellSep (80328)
Partner
Fischer Olivier
Pursuit Leader
Campbell Joshua
Open Date
Oct 4, 2023
Anticipated Win Date
May 1, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Tax Reform Analysis
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
39.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$36,777
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
39.2%
Model A: Planning
46.9%
Model B: Early Signal
9.8%
Stated Probability
50%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
46.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (47%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
9.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (10%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, currency (usd vs other).