Resilient Risk Management Migration - Phase 3
ID: 6695236-40
Potential Value
$0
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
50%
Days in Pipeline
952
Service Line
Tax
Field of Play
Tax
Opportunity Sub-SL
Indirect
Competency
Indirect Tax - Core
Global Service Code
Public Sector Advisory (76082)
Partner
Fischer Olivier
Pursuit Leader
Campbell Joshua
Open Date
Oct 4, 2023
Anticipated Win Date
May 1, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Resilient Risk Management Migration - Phase 3
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
76.2%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$0
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
76.2%
Model A: Planning
51.5%
Model B: Early Signal
13.5%
Stated Probability
50%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
51.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (52%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
13.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (14%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, service sub-line track record.