Global Risk Management Redesign
ID: 7421793-30
Potential Value
$1,000,000
Deal Value
$5,333,333
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
404
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Organization & People
Opportunity Sub-SL
Organization & People
Competency
People Experience
Global Service Code
Market Analysis (82042)
Partner
Rogers Ann
Pursuit Leader
Long Stephanie
Open Date
Apr 4, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jun 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Global Risk Management Redesign
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
23.9%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$51,926
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
23.9%
Model A: Planning
21.7%
Model B: Early Signal
5.1%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
21.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (22%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
5.1%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (5%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median.