Adaptive Risk Management Diagnostic
ID: 3639824-50
Potential Value
$500,000
Deal Value
$500,000
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
341
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Transactions & Corporate Finance
Competency
TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Real Estate Advisory - BuyInt (34276)
Partner
Kobayashi Dorothy
Pursuit Leader
Garcia Sophie
Open Date
Jun 6, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Sep 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Adaptive Risk Management Diagnostic
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
56.5%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$67,458
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
56.5%
Model A: Planning
23.9%
Model B: Early Signal
7.7%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
23.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (24%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
7.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (8%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, market segment.