PursuePast Due

Predictive Change Management Analysis

ID: 1953774-50

Potential Value

$3,600

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

90%

Days in Pipeline

111

Client & Account

Client

Bear Research Industries

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Transactions

Opportunity Sub-SL

Transactions & Corporate Finance

Competency

TCF - Buy & Integrate

Global Service Code

Regulatory Technology (86987)

People & Dates

Partner

Sanchez Elizabeth

Pursuit Leader

Allen Karin

Open Date

Jan 22, 2026

Anticipated Win Date

Feb 28, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Predictive Change Management Analysis

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

73.9%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$2,292

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.671
Opportunity business unit
+0.489
Region track record
-0.254

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

73.9%

Model A: Planning

86.1%

Model B: Early Signal

65.7%

Stated Probability

90%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

86.1%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.796
Lead sales credit %
-0.750
Currency (USD vs other)
-0.677

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (86%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, currency (usd vs other).

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

65.7%

Key Drivers

Account business unit
-0.553
Market segment
-0.522
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.494

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (66%). Factors working against: account business unit, market segment, brand new pursuit (vs renewal).