Innovative Tax Reform Program
ID: 3965857-10
Potential Value
$1,800,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
97
Client
Raven Government Logistics
Account
Emerald Digital Foundation
City
Washington
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy and Execution
Competency
S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Vendor Management (81707)
Partner
Morgan Susan
Pursuit Leader
Romero Debra
Open Date
Feb 5, 2026
Anticipated Win Date
Jun 30, 2027
Close Date
N/A
Description
Innovative Tax Reform Program
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
66.4%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$101,650
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
66.4%
Model A: Planning
8.5%
Model B: Early Signal
2.8%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
8.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (9%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, service sub-line track record.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
2.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median, service sub-line track record.