Strategic Internal Audit Phase II
ID: 1223361-50
Potential Value
-$30,500
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
100%
Days in Pipeline
113
Client
Heritage Manufacturing Industries
Account
Frontier Defense Federation
City
Denver
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
CBS & Elim
Field of Play
Tax
Opportunity Sub-SL
ITTS (Elim)
Competency
ITTS - ITTS Advisory (Elim)
Global Service Code
Logistics Planning (40410)
Partner
Larsen Akira
Pursuit Leader
Chen Philippe
Open Date
Jan 20, 2026
Anticipated Win Date
Apr 20, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Strategic Internal Audit Phase II
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
89.4%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
-$25,310
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
89.4%
Model A: Planning
92.8%
Model B: Early Signal
86.4%
Stated Probability
100%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
92.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (93%). Factors working against: market segment, lead sales credit %, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
86.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a high probability of winning (86%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: market segment, account business unit.