Extended Risk Management Architecture
ID: 5985051-50
Potential Value
$4,500,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
757
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Customer & Growth
Opportunity Sub-SL
Customer & Growth
Competency
Marketing Transformation
Global Service Code
Financial Modeling - Operations (53708)
Partner
Young Jean
Pursuit Leader
Morris Elizabeth
Open Date
Apr 16, 2024
Anticipated Win Date
Jan 5, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Extended Risk Management Architecture
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
20.8%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$830,317
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
20.8%
Model A: Planning
88.9%
Model B: Early Signal
43.9%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
88.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (89%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
43.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (44%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, market segment.