Adaptive Risk Management Diagnostic (Revised)
ID: 3633108-50
Potential Value
$1,500,000
Deal Value
$7,500,000
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
177
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Cybersecurity
Opportunity Sub-SL
Cybersecurity
Competency
Cyber Implementation
Global Service Code
Policy Development (47968)
Partner
Edwards Sandra
Pursuit Leader
Wagner Brenda
Open Date
Nov 17, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Sep 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Adaptive Risk Management Diagnostic (Revised)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
26.0%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$106,696
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
26.0%
Model A: Planning
27.4%
Model B: Early Signal
7.7%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
27.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (27%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
7.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (8%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, market segment.