Extended Change Management Assessment
ID: 6037076-50
Potential Value
$250,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
30%
Days in Pipeline
180
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Supply Chain & Operations
Opportunity Sub-SL
Supply Chain & Operations´
Competency
Logistics and Fulfillment Transformation
Global Service Code
Cost Reduction - Strat (68444)
Partner
White Jean-Paul
Pursuit Leader
Lewis Susan
Open Date
Nov 14, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 31, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Extended Change Management Assessment
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
41.0%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$55,910
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
41.0%
Model A: Planning
54.6%
Model B: Early Signal
22.4%
Stated Probability
30%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
54.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (55%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
22.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (22%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, account business unit.