ClosingPast Due

Integrated Talent Strategy Assessment - Renewal

ID: 8749096-10

Potential Value

$1

Deal Value

$1

Stated Probability

25%

Days in Pipeline

160

Client & Account

Client

Pathfinder Government Development

City

Houston

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Transactions & Corporate Finance

Competency

TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Regulatory Compliance (61122)

People & Dates

Partner

Hall Feng

Pursuit Leader

Johansen Dieter

Open Date

Dec 4, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Mar 31, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Integrated Talent Strategy Assessment - Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

80.1%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$0

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.695
Non-recurring work
+0.660
Opportunity business unit
+0.467

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

80.1%

Model A: Planning

37.7%

Model B: Early Signal

19.6%

Stated Probability

25%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

37.7%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.135
Lead sales credit %
-0.739
Market segment
-0.539

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (38%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, market segment.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

19.6%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.646
Sub-sector track record
-0.452
Currency (USD vs other)
-0.435

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (20%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, currency (usd vs other).