Critical Risk Management Program
ID: 7133477-30
Potential Value
$400,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
20%
Days in Pipeline
442
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy and Execution
Competency
S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Vendor Management (81707)
Partner
Thomas Hannah
Pursuit Leader
Morales Brian
Open Date
Feb 25, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jan 31, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Critical Risk Management Program
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
54.6%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$95,581
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
54.6%
Model A: Planning
43.7%
Model B: Early Signal
4.8%
Stated Probability
20%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
43.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (44%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, time in current pipeline stage.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
4.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (5%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size.