ClosingOver 90 Days

Enhanced Market Entry Phase II - Renewal

ID: 2785719-50

Potential Value

$1

Deal Value

$5

Stated Probability

90%

Days in Pipeline

810

Client & Account

Client

Fusion Aerospace Commission

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

Assurance

Field of Play

Audit & Governance

Opportunity Sub-SL

Technology Risk

Competency

Technology Risk

Global Service Code

Grant Management (72357)

People & Dates

Partner

Suzuki Michelle

Pursuit Leader

Smith Sharon

Open Date

Feb 23, 2024

Anticipated Win Date

Mar 31, 2028

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Enhanced Market Entry Phase II - Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

24.2%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$0

Key Triage Drivers

Deal size vs service line median
-0.741
Opportunity business unit
+0.587
Work type
+0.559

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

24.2%

Model A: Planning

72.4%

Model B: Early Signal

60.2%

Stated Probability

90%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

72.4%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.455
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.057
Lead sales credit %
-0.763

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (72%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

60.2%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+0.791
Service sub-line track record
-0.509
Renewal pursuit
+0.427

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (60%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), renewal pursuit. Factors working against: service sub-line track record.