High-Impact Cost Optimization Renewal - Phase 3
ID: 2981631-30
Potential Value
$1
Deal Value
$1
Stated Probability
70%
Days in Pipeline
197
Client
Cardinal Insurance Logistics
Account
Frontier Digital Institute
City
San Francisco
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Organization & People
Opportunity Sub-SL
Organization & People
Competency
People Experience
Global Service Code
Market Analysis (82042)
Partner
Bailey Feng
Pursuit Leader
Johansen Magnus
Open Date
Oct 28, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 16, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
High-Impact Cost Optimization Renewal - Phase 3
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
20.8%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$0
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
20.8%
Model A: Planning
75.5%
Model B: Early Signal
33.7%
Stated Probability
70%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
75.5%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (76%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
33.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (34%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, market segment.