Responsive Change Management Integration (Amended)
ID: 5828599-20
Potential Value
$1
Deal Value
$1
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
272
Client
Pinnacle Aerospace Capital
Account
Emerald Digital Foundation
City
Washington
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Assurance
Field of Play
Risk
Opportunity Sub-SL
Forensics
Competency
Incident Response & Resilience
Global Service Code
Mediation Services (94774)
Partner
Bernard David
Pursuit Leader
Bakker Theresa
Open Date
Aug 14, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Nov 19, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Responsive Change Management Integration (Amended)
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
73.0%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$0
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
73.0%
Model A: Planning
12.6%
Model B: Early Signal
17.7%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
12.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (13%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal age (days since open).
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
17.7%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (18%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), market segment.