IdentifyOver 90 Days

Predictive Program Management Initiative

ID: 4800188-20

Potential Value

$955,027

Deal Value

$4,775,136

Stated Probability

10%

Days in Pipeline

615

Client & Account

Client

Azure Agency

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Risk

Opportunity Sub-SL

Risk´

Competency

Financial Risk Management

Global Service Code

Cybersecurity Operations (48230)

People & Dates

Partner

Liu Larry

Pursuit Leader

Moore Helen

Open Date

Sep 5, 2024

Anticipated Win Date

Nov 18, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Predictive Program Management Initiative

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

96.2%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$810,914

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.753
Non-recurring work
+0.610
Renewal pursuit
+0.592

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

96.2%

Model A: Planning

88.3%

Model B: Early Signal

82.0%

Stated Probability

10%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

88.3%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.741
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.354
Lead sales credit %
-0.724

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a high probability of winning (88%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

82.0%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.067
Deal size vs service line median
-0.675
OpportunityType Additional Sales Opportunity
+0.458

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a high probability of winning (82%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), opportunitytype additional sales opportunity. Factors working against: deal size vs service line median.