Closing60-90 Days

Adaptive Change Management Advisory - Renewal

ID: 4256110-50

Potential Value

$1

Deal Value

$250,000

Stated Probability

0%

Days in Pipeline

344

Client & Account

Client

River Ventures

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Transactions & Corporate Finance

Competency

TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Regulatory Compliance (61122)

People & Dates

Partner

Aguilar Jean-Paul

Pursuit Leader

Nguyen Olivia

Open Date

Jun 3, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Jun 30, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Adaptive Change Management Advisory - Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

79.2%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$0

Key Triage Drivers

Non-recurring work
+0.743
Work type
+0.673
Opportunity business unit
+0.476

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

79.2%

Model A: Planning

22.7%

Model B: Early Signal

20.0%

Stated Probability

0%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

22.7%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.366
Time in current pipeline stage
-1.245
Lead sales credit %
-0.761

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (23%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

20.0%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.747
Sub-sector track record
-0.516
Market segment
-0.421

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (20%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), sub-sector track record, market segment.