Extended Operations Transformation - Pilot
ID: 4256981-50
Potential Value
$4,500,000
Deal Value
$22,000,000
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
233
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Organization & People
Opportunity Sub-SL
Organization & People
Competency
HR Transformation
Global Service Code
Asset Recovery (63713)
Partner
Liu Larry
Pursuit Leader
Zhang Ann
Open Date
Sep 22, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jul 31, 2028
Close Date
N/A
Description
Extended Operations Transformation - Pilot
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
22.5%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$150,626
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
22.5%
Model A: Planning
14.9%
Model B: Early Signal
3.4%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
14.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (15%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
3.4%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (3%). Factors working against: service sub-line track record, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size vs service line median.