PursueOver 90 Days

Accelerated Risk Management Advisory (Revised)

ID: 8127745-20

Potential Value

$6,000,000

Deal Value

$30,000,000

Stated Probability

75%

Days in Pipeline

469

Client & Account

Client

Azure Agency

City

Dallas

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

FED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Risk

Opportunity Sub-SL

Risk´

Competency

Financial Risk Management

Global Service Code

Cybersecurity Operations (48230)

People & Dates

Partner

Liu Larry

Pursuit Leader

Moore Helen

Open Date

Jan 29, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Oct 1, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Accelerated Risk Management Advisory (Revised)

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

70.6%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$2,923,687

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.702
Renewal pursuit
+0.540
Service sub-line track record
-0.339

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

70.6%

Model A: Planning

69.0%

Model B: Early Signal

52.7%

Stated Probability

75%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

69.0%

Key Drivers

Time in current pipeline stage
-1.670
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.612
Lead sales credit %
-0.819

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (69%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

52.7%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
+1.078
Deal size vs service line median
-0.623
Renewal pursuit
+0.623

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (53%). Factors working in favor: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), renewal pursuit. Factors working against: deal size vs service line median.