Predictive Legacy System Migration
ID: 7394323-10
Potential Value
$2,000,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
10%
Days in Pipeline
146
Client
Lion Authority
City
San Francisco
Region
USLI
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Assurance
Field of Play
Risk
Opportunity Sub-SL
Forensics
Competency
Incident Response & Resilience
Global Service Code
Mediation Services (94774)
Partner
Phillips Mark
Pursuit Leader
Campbell Joshua
Open Date
Dec 18, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Mar 6, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Predictive Legacy System Migration
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
56.6%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$263,509
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
56.6%
Model A: Planning
23.3%
Model B: Early Signal
3.8%
Stated Probability
10%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
23.3%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (23%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
3.8%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (4%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.