Intelligent Market Entry Framework - Extension
ID: 4885498-30
Potential Value
$717,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
20%
Days in Pipeline
257
Client
Vanguard Civic Enterprises
Account
Cedar Maritime Advisors
City
Düsseldorf
Region
Europe West
Sub-Sector
SLED
Service Line
Consulting
Field of Play
Cybersecurity
Opportunity Sub-SL
Cybersecurity
Competency
Cyber Operations
Global Service Code
Product Strategy - Review (69596)
Partner
Sullivan Thomas
Pursuit Leader
Sullivan Shirley
Open Date
Aug 29, 2025
Anticipated Win Date
Jun 30, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Intelligent Market Entry Framework - Extension
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
66.3%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$285,866
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
66.3%
Model A: Planning
60.1%
Model B: Early Signal
9.6%
Stated Probability
20%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
60.1%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (60%). Factors working in favor: months in progress. Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
9.6%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (10%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, currency (usd vs other).