QualifyPast Due

Predictive Market Entry Scale-Up

ID: 3293075-20

Potential Value

$700,000

Deal Value

$318,182

Stated Probability

50%

Days in Pipeline

422

Client & Account

Client

Optima Education Trust

City

Denver

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Tax

Field of Play

Tax

Opportunity Sub-SL

BTS

Competency

BTS - BTA

Global Service Code

Enterprise Architecture (66901)

People & Dates

Partner

Schäfer Gloria

Pursuit Leader

Torres Gary

Open Date

Mar 17, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Apr 6, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Predictive Market Entry Scale-Up

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

77.8%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$160,126

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.601
Opportunity business unit
+0.548
Market segment
-0.374

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

77.8%

Model A: Planning

29.4%

Model B: Early Signal

3.8%

Stated Probability

50%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

29.4%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.341
Lead sales credit %
-0.849
Deal size
-0.681

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (29%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, deal size.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

3.8%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.915
Deal size
-0.626
Deal size vs service line median
-0.597

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (4%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, deal size vs service line median.