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Predictive Operations Enhancement

ID: 8228637-50

Potential Value

$250,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

20%

Days in Pipeline

121

Client & Account

Client

Harbor Insurance Corporation

City

Chicago

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Assurance

Field of Play

Finance

Opportunity Sub-SL

FAAS

Competency

FAAS - Enhanced Corporate Reporting and Accounting

Global Service Code

Workforce Development - Operations (63837)

People & Dates

Partner

Collins Heather

Pursuit Leader

Pedersen Satoshi

Open Date

Jan 12, 2026

Anticipated Win Date

Feb 27, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Predictive Operations Enhancement

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

58.2%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$36,564

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.612
Service sub-line track record
-0.523
Opportunity business unit
+0.441

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

58.2%

Model A: Planning

25.1%

Model B: Early Signal

9.3%

Stated Probability

20%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

25.1%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.208
Deal age (days since open)
-1.069
Service sub-line track record
-0.957

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (25%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal age (days since open), service sub-line track record.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

9.3%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.725
Service sub-line track record
-0.674
Currency (USD vs other)
-0.490

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (9%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, currency (usd vs other).