PursuePast Due

Adaptive Program Management Enhancement - Renewal

ID: 3477953-30

Potential Value

$33,727

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

55%

Days in Pipeline

169

Client & Account

Client

Vanguard Services

City

Cape Town

Region

Africa India

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

Consulting

Field of Play

Finance

Opportunity Sub-SL

Finance´

Competency

Global Business Services

Global Service Code

Grant Management (35413)

People & Dates

Partner

Williams Larry

Pursuit Leader

Clark Diego

Open Date

Nov 25, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Mar 16, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Adaptive Program Management Enhancement - Renewal

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

51.7%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$8,926

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.613
Service sub-line track record
-0.520
Opportunity business unit
+0.282

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

51.7%

Model A: Planning

51.1%

Model B: Early Signal

44.7%

Stated Probability

55%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

51.1%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.035
Deal age (days since open)
-0.791
Lead sales credit %
-0.747

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a moderate probability of winning (51%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal age (days since open), lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

44.7%

Key Drivers

Currency (USD vs other)
-0.669
Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.540
Service sub-line track record
-0.503

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a moderate probability of winning (45%). Factors working against: currency (usd vs other), brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record.