ClosingPast Due

Critical Internal Audit Scale-Up - FY25

ID: 6226181-10

Potential Value

$250,000

Deal Value

$250,000

Stated Probability

25%

Days in Pipeline

373

Client & Account

Client

Crimson Defense Associates

City

Atlanta

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Strategy and Execution

Competency

S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Vendor Management (81707)

People & Dates

Partner

Liu Barbara

Pursuit Leader

Hansen David

Open Date

May 5, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Mar 1, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Critical Internal Audit Scale-Up - FY25

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

51.1%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$30,224

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.615
Service sub-line track record
-0.492
Opportunity business unit
+0.440

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

51.1%

Model A: Planning

23.6%

Model B: Early Signal

3.5%

Stated Probability

25%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

23.6%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.056
Time in current pipeline stage
-1.004
Lead sales credit %
-0.706

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (24%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), time in current pipeline stage, lead sales credit %.

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

3.5%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.808
Service sub-line track record
-0.580
Deal size vs service line median
-0.540

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (4%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.