Adaptive Change Management Initiative
ID: 4879880-50
Potential Value
$250,000
Deal Value
$0
Stated Probability
25%
Days in Pipeline
516
Service Line
SaT
Field of Play
Strategy & Transformation
Opportunity Sub-SL
Strategy and Execution
Competency
S&E - Reimagine Reshape & Grow
Global Service Code
Vendor Management (46955)
Partner
Nguyen Kenneth
Pursuit Leader
Davis Marcel
Open Date
Dec 13, 2024
Anticipated Win Date
Jun 15, 2026
Close Date
N/A
Description
Adaptive Change Management Initiative
Triage & Expected Value
Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline
P(Pursue)
42.4%
Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)
$33,846
Key Triage Drivers
Win Probability Models
P(Pursue)
42.4%
Model A: Planning
31.9%
Model B: Early Signal
5.3%
Stated Probability
25%
Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.
Win Probability
31.9%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (32%). Factors working against: time in current pipeline stage, brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %.
Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.
Win Probability
5.3%
Key Drivers
Plain English
The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (5%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), service sub-line track record, deal size vs service line median.