Identify60-90 Days

Critical Change Management Program (Revised)

ID: 9895991-30

Potential Value

$500,000

Deal Value

$0

Stated Probability

25%

Days in Pipeline

195

Client & Account

Client

Liberty Financial Institute

City

Boston

Region

USLI

Sub-Sector

SLED

Service Classification

Service Line

SaT

Field of Play

Strategy & Transformation

Opportunity Sub-SL

Transactions & Corporate Finance

Competency

TCF - Reimagine Reshape & Grow

Global Service Code

Regulatory Compliance (61122)

People & Dates

Partner

Green Sarah

Pursuit Leader

Turner Jennifer

Open Date

Oct 30, 2025

Anticipated Win Date

Jun 30, 2026

Close Date

N/A

Details

Description

Critical Change Management Program (Revised)

Triage & Expected Value

Triage Model: P(Pursue)

Predicts likelihood of pursuit vs. decline

P(Pursue)

56.6%

Expected Value (EV = P(Pursue) × P(Win) × Value)

$81,745

Key Triage Drivers

Work type
+0.592
Opportunity business unit
+0.436
Deal size
-0.323

Win Probability Models

P(Pursue)

56.6%

Model A: Planning

28.9%

Model B: Early Signal

7.3%

Stated Probability

25%

Model A: Planning

Includes deal age and timeline factors. Best for active pipeline management.

Win Probability

28.9%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-1.270
Lead sales credit %
-0.712
Deal age (days since open)
-0.706

Plain English

The model a: planning estimates a low probability of winning (29%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), lead sales credit %, deal age (days since open).

Model B: Early Signal

Excludes timeline factors. Better for early-stage assessment.

Win Probability

7.3%

Key Drivers

Brand new pursuit (vs renewal)
-0.933
Deal size
-0.552
Service sub-line track record
-0.464

Plain English

The model b: early signal estimates a low probability of winning (7%). Factors working against: brand new pursuit (vs renewal), deal size, service sub-line track record.